Precise Pair Trading Pro

Precise Pair Trading Pro is a market-neutral pairs (statistical-arbitrage) EA for MetaTrader 5. It trades the short-term imbalance between EURUSD and XAUUSD — long one, short the other — and closes as the spread reverts, using one position per symbol with no grid or martingale. Over its tracked Starter Pack window it turned in a modest, choppy edge: ~35% win rate but a 2.17:1 payoff for a 1.17 profit factor, with drawdown roughly equal to the period’s gains. A low-win-rate, positive-payoff diversifier for traders who understand pairs trading — not a smooth equity curve. Third-party EA, included in the Trading Kernel Starter Pack.

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EURUSD × XAUUSD · MetaTrader 5 · Pairs / Stat-Arb

Precise Pair Trading Pro

A market-neutral pairs trader. It watches two correlated symbols — EURUSD and XAUUSD — and acts when they drift out of their usual relationship, going long one and short the other, then closing the pair as the imbalance narrows back toward normal. One position per symbol. No grid, no martingale, no stacking recovery orders — and it is not built to sit in drawdown for days.

Market-neutral1 position per symbolNo grid No martingaleMean reversionFiltered entries
148
Pair-trades
closed, tracked
1.17
Profit factor
gross win ÷ loss
2.17
Payoff ratio
avg win ÷ avg loss
7
Weeks live
27 Jul – 17 Sep 2026
How it trades

Two symbols, one relationship

Every point below is how the strategy behaved on the tracked Starter Pack account — read directly from the closed-trade record of both legs.

Core idea

Spread reversion

Trades the short-term imbalance between EURUSD and XAUUSD. When they move differently from their normal relationship, it takes a position and waits for the gap to close.

Structure

Long one, short the other

Each trade is a pair: long one symbol and short the other at the same time, so the bet is on the relationship, not on market direction.

Position limit

1 position per symbol

Never stacks. No grid, no martingale, no basket of recovery orders. One clean pair at a time.

Exit

Imbalance narrows

Closes when the spread reverts toward normal or hits its close target. By design it is not meant to sit in drawdown for days.

Filters

Skips poor conditions

Entry threshold, minimum correlation and a time filter gate trades — if conditions aren’t right, it simply doesn’t trade.

Risk leg

Stop on the gold side

On the tracked account the XAUUSD leg carried a broker-side stop; the EURUSD leg ran as the balancing hedge.

The tracked record

What the Starter Pack account shows

Computed pair-by-pair from the closed-trade export (27 Jul – 17 Sep 2026, 295 legs across 148 pair-trades). Real figures for this account, this window, on small lots — not a backtest, and not a promise about your broker or future markets.

⚠ Simulated
Cumulative net across 148 pair-trades · hover or tap the chart for any point.
Gold (XAUUSD) size / leverage1.0×
EURUSD size / leverage1.0×

How to read this: the curve is the running net of the tracked account. The size / leverage sliders let you scale each leg up or down to explore “what if” sizing — when either is not 1×, the view is hypothetical and simulated: it linearly rescales the real per-trade results and cannot model margin, swap or the risk of an early stop-out, so treat larger multipliers as illustrative only. Sharpe is annualised from daily P&L over a short window and is best read as indicative. Real, unscaled results are the 1× view.

⚠️ Read the low win rate correctly

This system wins only about a third of its pair-trades — but its average win (+$19.33) is more than twice its average loss (−$8.93), which is how it still finished the window net positive. It is a low-win-rate, positive-payoff strategy: expect frequent small losers punctuated by larger winners, not a smooth line of green.

By month
MonthPairsWin rateNet
July 20263622.2%−$111.05
August 20262763.0%+$227.96
September 20268531.8%+$31.54
By leg (symbol)
SymbolNet
XAUUSD leg+$186.69
EURUSD leg (hedge)−$38.24
Combined+$148.45

One leg losing on its own is normal and expected — it’s the hedge. Only the combined pair result is meaningful.

By week
WeekPairsNet
Week of Jul 2736−$111.05
Week of Aug 416+$135.40
Week of Aug 141+$16.24
Week of Aug 177+$70.00
Week of Aug 3147−$39.54
Week of Sep 1022−$34.20
Week of Sep 1419+$111.60
How legs closed
Exit typeLegsNet
Other222+$750.85
SL hit61−$675.74
Trailing stop12+$73.34
Show every pair-trade — all 148
#OpenedPositionMinsNet
12026-07-27 22:12LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD8−$13.16
22026-07-27 22:21LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD189+$29.93
32026-07-29 22:02LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.72
42026-07-29 22:03LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD2−$11.74
52026-07-29 22:05LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD4−$11.64
62026-07-29 22:09LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD11−$6.48
72026-07-29 22:21LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$13.78
82026-07-29 22:22LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD11−$21.38
92026-07-29 22:34LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD4−$4.60
102026-07-29 22:39LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD13−$7.58
112026-07-29 22:52LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD3−$13.28
122026-07-29 22:56LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD2−$15.26
132026-07-29 22:59LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD121−$4.88
142026-07-30 01:00LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD6−$8.94
152026-07-30 01:01SHORT EURUSD29−$1.04
162026-07-30 01:07LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD23+$13.78
172026-07-30 07:42LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD19−$8.24
182026-07-30 08:01LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD18−$15.68
192026-07-30 08:19LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD16+$5.70
202026-07-30 08:36LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD1−$15.42
212026-07-30 08:38LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD16−$7.62
222026-07-30 08:55LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD19−$0.54
232026-07-30 09:14LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD14−$3.90
242026-07-30 09:28LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD36+$30.80
252026-07-30 21:49LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD29+$22.18
262026-07-31 10:47LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD14−$11.12
272026-07-31 11:03LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD24−$11.68
282026-07-31 11:50LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD22−$12.06
292026-07-31 12:13LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD24−$7.96
302026-07-31 14:17LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD51−$10.60
312026-07-31 15:09LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD40+$29.80
322026-07-31 16:37LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD19+$8.00
332026-07-31 16:57LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD15+$3.40
342026-07-31 17:13LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD9−$12.16
352026-07-31 17:27LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD11−$0.48
362026-07-31 18:27LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD3303−$2.70
372026-08-04 19:49LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD14−$12.24
382026-08-04 20:06LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD26+$21.68
392026-08-04 21:38LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD77−$10.64
402026-08-05 14:12LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD17+$15.08
412026-08-05 14:29LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD35+$30.88
422026-08-05 15:05LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD12+$18.72
432026-08-05 15:17LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD14+$1.40
442026-08-05 15:33LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD9−$7.12
452026-08-05 15:42LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD11−$14.38
462026-08-05 16:27LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD10+$6.10
472026-08-05 17:08LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD4+$22.02
482026-08-05 18:18LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD3−$9.70
492026-08-05 18:21LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD26+$16.24
502026-08-05 18:50LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD7+$29.66
512026-08-05 20:09LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD18+$6.92
522026-08-07 19:49LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD177+$20.78
532026-08-14 20:11LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD95+$16.24
542026-08-17 03:02LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD16+$30.22
552026-08-19 15:59LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD6+$23.90
562026-08-19 16:13LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD5−$14.60
572026-08-19 16:18LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD13+$15.04
582026-08-21 14:43LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD50+$29.44
592026-08-21 15:36LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD7−$2.22
602026-08-21 15:44LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD17−$11.78
612026-08-31 05:34LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD6−$12.12
622026-08-31 05:41LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD8−$11.22
632026-08-31 05:49LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD6+$29.66
642026-09-01 16:02LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD1−$12.82
652026-09-01 16:04LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD5−$7.88
662026-09-01 16:10LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD2−$8.14
672026-09-01 16:13LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD6−$9.78
682026-09-01 16:19LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD10+$29.96
692026-09-01 16:30LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD14+$29.12
702026-09-01 16:45LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD16−$1.26
712026-09-01 17:01LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD2−$14.80
722026-09-01 17:04LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD14+$29.82
732026-09-01 17:19LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD11−$8.86
742026-09-01 17:32LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD10−$7.88
752026-09-02 22:14LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD30−$15.68
762026-09-02 22:46LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD164−$13.14
772026-09-03 11:46LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD37−$6.88
782026-09-03 14:18LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD13−$9.70
792026-09-03 14:33LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD33+$29.74
802026-09-03 15:07LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD9−$9.46
812026-09-03 15:17LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD9+$12.06
822026-09-03 15:32LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD4−$10.14
832026-09-03 16:57LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD3−$10.14
842026-09-03 17:11LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD9+$28.16
852026-09-03 18:05LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD10−$15.58
862026-09-03 18:16LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD4−$15.68
872026-09-03 18:20LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD25+$29.98
882026-09-03 19:28LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD24−$15.62
892026-09-03 19:53LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD73−$0.24
902026-09-03 21:29LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD45−$13.74
912026-09-04 16:01LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$1.66
922026-09-04 16:02LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.58
932026-09-04 16:03LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.36
942026-09-04 16:19LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.76
952026-09-04 16:20LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.48
962026-09-04 16:21LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$1.02
972026-09-04 16:22LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.92
982026-09-04 16:23LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0+$0.26
992026-09-04 16:25LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$1.30
1002026-09-04 16:26LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.92
1012026-09-04 16:27LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$1.00
1022026-09-04 16:28LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.70
1032026-09-04 16:29LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$1.08
1042026-09-04 16:30LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD6−$1.00
1052026-09-04 16:46LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD5+$11.64
1062026-09-04 17:41LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD7−$10.16
1072026-09-04 19:21LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD43−$17.24
1082026-09-10 15:34LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD1+$12.76
1092026-09-10 15:35LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD4+$31.92
1102026-09-10 15:40LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD2−$12.06
1112026-09-10 15:42LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD1−$13.82
1122026-09-10 15:43LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD2−$12.92
1132026-09-10 15:45LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD4−$11.26
1142026-09-10 15:51LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD5+$29.66
1152026-09-10 15:56LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD4−$13.40
1162026-09-10 16:01LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD0−$17.26
1172026-09-10 16:02LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD18−$4.84
1182026-09-10 16:21LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD7−$3.84
1192026-09-10 16:28LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD4−$11.88
1202026-09-10 16:33LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD5−$15.54
1212026-09-10 16:38LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD6+$6.18
1222026-09-10 17:34LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD9−$4.34
1232026-09-10 17:43LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD19−$16.26
1242026-09-10 18:03LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD32+$30.62
1252026-09-10 18:40LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD29−$12.88
1262026-09-10 19:12LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD23+$3.74
1272026-09-11 09:03LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD11−$14.26
1282026-09-11 09:15LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD46+$4.56
1292026-09-11 10:01LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD73+$10.92
1302026-09-14 09:01LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD62+$29.58
1312026-09-14 10:04LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD60+$1.64
1322026-09-14 11:05LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD52+$19.30
1332026-09-14 12:26LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD13−$5.96
1342026-09-14 12:40LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD6−$6.74
1352026-09-14 12:46LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD8+$7.58
1362026-09-14 14:57LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD0−$0.32
1372026-09-14 14:58LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD18+$20.92
1382026-09-14 16:09LONG XAUUSD · SHORT EURUSD10+$30.40
1392026-09-16 11:49LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD28−$11.36
1402026-09-17 04:01LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD4−$14.64
1412026-09-17 04:06LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD12−$6.44
1422026-09-17 04:18LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD7−$12.88
1432026-09-17 04:25LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD11−$14.74
1442026-09-17 04:37LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD20+$29.66
1452026-09-17 04:57LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD12+$29.88
1462026-09-17 18:46LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD15−$12.04
1472026-09-17 19:02LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD65+$12.42
1482026-09-17 20:14LONG EURUSD · SHORT XAUUSD114+$15.34

Net is the combined result of both legs per pair. The full leg-by-leg export (295 rows) is available on request.

Read before you run it

The risk picture, in one place

⚠️ What to expect

  • The edge is modest and choppy. Over this window the maximum drawdown (−$153.68) was almost as large as the total net (+$148.45) — a recovery factor of 0.97. The account made roughly what its worst dip cost. July was negative before August recovered it.
  • Low win rate by design. Around a third of pairs win. You need to sit through strings of small losses for the larger winners to arrive; stopping early locks in the wrong half of the distribution.
  • Two symbols, double the broker sensitivity. Spread, swap and execution on both EURUSD and XAUUSD affect every trade, and gold spreads can widen fast. Results vary meaningfully between brokers.
  • Correlation can break. Pairs trading assumes the two symbols keep their usual relationship. When that relationship shifts, the spread may not revert as expected.
  • Small lots, small figures. The tracked account used 0.01–0.04 lots; the dollar figures are small by design. Scale to your own account and margin, not to the tracked one.
  • No guarantees. CFD trading carries substantial risk and past results do not guarantee future performance.
Rating

Our verdict — and the third-party record

Our formal Kernel Rating for this EA is still being finalised. Rather than post a placeholder number, we’re marking it pending and showing the developer’s public marketplace score, clearly labelled as theirs.

Kernel Rating · Trading Kernel
Pending

Under review. When finalised we’ll publish the Kernel Rating here — whatever it turns out to be — based on the live record above.

Marketplace rating · MQL5
3.75 / 5

The developer’s public score across buyer reviews. Shown for context; it is the vendor’s marketplace rating, not an independent Trading Kernel verdict.

Configuration

Inputs you control

  • Main / Secondary symbol — the two symbols traded and compared (EURUSD & XAUUSD by default)
  • Analytical timeframe — timeframe used for the calculations
  • Historical data depth — how many candles are used
  • Entry Threshold — how strong the imbalance must be to trade (higher = fewer, stronger signals)
  • Exit Threshold — when the imbalance is judged small enough to close
  • Close Target — profit target for closing (smaller = faster, larger = waits for more)
  • Beta Smoothing — stabilises the signal and reduces noise
  • Min Correlation — minimum connection strength before new trades are allowed
  • Trading time filter — controls when it may open and close trades

Developer guidance: higher Entry Threshold for safer, rarer trades; lower for more activity. Recommended minimum balance 300 EUR/USD at 1:33 leverage; roughly 300–500 of balance per 0.01 lot on XAUUSD, about double that per 0.01 lot on EURUSD. Test with real ticks first and optimise trading hours on your own broker’s data.

Questions

Straight answers

What is pair (statistical arbitrage) trading?
Instead of betting on where one market goes, it trades the relationship between two correlated symbols. When they drift apart more than usual, it goes long the relatively cheap one and short the relatively expensive one, then closes both when they converge. The direction of the overall market matters far less than whether the two symbols return to their normal relationship.
Why did the EURUSD leg lose money on its own?
Because it’s the hedge. In a pair trade one leg is usually up while the other is down; judging a single leg in isolation is meaningless. Only the combined pair result — which finished the window net positive — reflects the strategy.
Why is the win rate only about a third?
By design. It takes many small losses waiting for the spread to revert, and makes it back on larger winners — the average win here is over twice the average loss. That positive payoff, not a high hit rate, is where the edge comes from.
Does it use grid or martingale?
No. It holds one position per symbol, doesn’t stack recovery orders, and isn’t designed to sit in drawdown for days. Poor conditions are filtered out rather than traded through.
What do I need to run it?
MetaTrader 5 with both EURUSD and XAUUSD available, a low-spread account (spreads on both symbols matter), and ideally a VPS. Developer minimum is 300 EUR/USD at 1:33 leverage, sized conservatively per 0.01 lot as noted above.
Did Trading Kernel build this?
No. Precise Pair Trading Pro is a third-party EA by Arkadii Zagorulko, included in the Trading Kernel Starter Pack and reviewed by us — not authored by us.

Precise Pair Trading Pro

A market-neutral EURUSD×XAUUSD spread trader — included in the Trading Kernel Starter Pack. A modest, low-win-rate / positive-payoff edge for traders who understand pairs trading and can sit through the losing half to reach the winners. Add it to your cart using the button at the top of this page.

Platform
MetaTrader 5
Symbols
EURUSD & XAUUSD
Style
Market-neutral pairs / stat-arb
Positions
1 per symbol · no grid/martingale
Min deposit
300 EUR/USD @ 1:33 (developer)
Licensing
Third-party, in Starter Pack
Licensing & authorship. Precise Pair Trading Pro is a third-party Expert Advisor developed by Arkadii Zagorulko and included in the Trading Kernel Starter Pack — it was not built by Trading Kernel. Trading Kernel is non-custodial: the software runs in your own MetaTrader 5 terminal on your own broker account; we never hold funds or trade on your behalf.
Risk disclosure

Trading foreign exchange, CFDs and other leveraged products — including gold (XAUUSD) — carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Pairs / statistical-arbitrage strategies depend on two symbols maintaining their historical relationship; when that relationship breaks down, expected reversion may not occur. Past performance, including the tracked live results shown on this page, is not indicative of future results; the figures here relate to one specific account, broker and configuration over a limited window, are computed from a real closed-trade export, and are shown as-is including losses and drawdown. Any third-party ratings referenced are the property of their sources and are shown for context only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and for complying with the rules of any broker or prop firm you use. CFTC Rule 4.41: hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and, unlike an actual performance record, do not represent actual trading.

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